Prediction

As Cassie or mom can tell you, I've grown more pessimistic the last few days. The overall polling data--after an initial burst when I got here--has gone back to it's mediocre level. A mid-twenties tie, with Edwards a point below Hillary, Hillary a point or two below Obama. There are out-lying polls--the Des Moines Register's final poll, in particular, that shows Obama ahead by 7 points.

I've also been in neighborhoods crappy for Edwards, which hasn't helped my confidence. Of course, his strength in the rural counties is what's most important.

Last night, a rumor started that Richardson and Biden were going to suggest their supporters go to Obama if they are not viable in a precinct. Kucinich has already done this, and Dodd--my second choice--has come out saying this is ridiculous and immoral.

I don't know if it's that, but it certainly is bad for us. A huge part of the strategy is to get those second choice people. Ugh. I guess, the thinking goes, that Biden and Richardson want this race to go on as long as possible. If Hillary wins Iowa, it is likely over, so they're supporting the rival that's polling best.

Who knows if that really will happen? It hasn't been highly publicized yet.

If I were to make a prediction, I'd honestly say Obama, Hillary, then Edwards. I sure hope I'm wrong. We'll see in a few hours.