Saturday, January 5, 2008
The Youth Vote
Count me among the people who think that Iowa hinged on the youth vote. I'll have a full account of my caucus night and my thoughts on the aftermath, but in the meantime, check this out: it's the single most insightful thing I've seen written about the youth vote.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Last thought
My last thought before the caucus tonight is this. Our greatest movement the last few days has been from people we had as Undecided, Leaners or Supporters to WNC--Will Not Caucus. Now, lots of these say they're just leaving town. The caucuses got moved awful early this year, and that was always considered a concern. But certainly, some are just sick of it, and they're acting out by saying "Screw 'em all! I'm sick of this."
One thing, though, we have called and visited people SO MANY TIMES. Many have received daily calls from us recently, so multiply that by the other campaigns. They are so sick of it. I remember feeling this a year ago on the McNerney campaign too. I appreciate that even once a voter gives you their support, that, in the big picture, you want to stay on them to make sure they haven't strayed.
But there has to be a better way. There has to be a way that is less irritating. Whoever invents a way to convince voters, keep in contact with them, and turn them out, without pissing them off to no end, will be a legend.
One thing, though, we have called and visited people SO MANY TIMES. Many have received daily calls from us recently, so multiply that by the other campaigns. They are so sick of it. I remember feeling this a year ago on the McNerney campaign too. I appreciate that even once a voter gives you their support, that, in the big picture, you want to stay on them to make sure they haven't strayed.
But there has to be a better way. There has to be a way that is less irritating. Whoever invents a way to convince voters, keep in contact with them, and turn them out, without pissing them off to no end, will be a legend.
Prediction
As Cassie or mom can tell you, I've grown more pessimistic the last few days. The overall polling data--after an initial burst when I got here--has gone back to it's mediocre level. A mid-twenties tie, with Edwards a point below Hillary, Hillary a point or two below Obama. There are out-lying polls--the Des Moines Register's final poll, in particular, that shows Obama ahead by 7 points.
I've also been in neighborhoods crappy for Edwards, which hasn't helped my confidence. Of course, his strength in the rural counties is what's most important.
Last night, a rumor started that Richardson and Biden were going to suggest their supporters go to Obama if they are not viable in a precinct. Kucinich has already done this, and Dodd--my second choice--has come out saying this is ridiculous and immoral.
I don't know if it's that, but it certainly is bad for us. A huge part of the strategy is to get those second choice people. Ugh. I guess, the thinking goes, that Biden and Richardson want this race to go on as long as possible. If Hillary wins Iowa, it is likely over, so they're supporting the rival that's polling best.
Who knows if that really will happen? It hasn't been highly publicized yet.
If I were to make a prediction, I'd honestly say Obama, Hillary, then Edwards. I sure hope I'm wrong. We'll see in a few hours.
I've also been in neighborhoods crappy for Edwards, which hasn't helped my confidence. Of course, his strength in the rural counties is what's most important.
Last night, a rumor started that Richardson and Biden were going to suggest their supporters go to Obama if they are not viable in a precinct. Kucinich has already done this, and Dodd--my second choice--has come out saying this is ridiculous and immoral.
I don't know if it's that, but it certainly is bad for us. A huge part of the strategy is to get those second choice people. Ugh. I guess, the thinking goes, that Biden and Richardson want this race to go on as long as possible. If Hillary wins Iowa, it is likely over, so they're supporting the rival that's polling best.
Who knows if that really will happen? It hasn't been highly publicized yet.
If I were to make a prediction, I'd honestly say Obama, Hillary, then Edwards. I sure hope I'm wrong. We'll see in a few hours.
Emotions One Day Out
I had a long day on Wednesday. Kicking around a fairly ritzy neighborhood in northern Iowa City/Coralville, I was not feeling the love. The few Edwards supporters I found all seemed to be leaving town or unable to caucus or some such. More than that, there were a LOT of Hillary signs.
Two conversations stuck in my craw.
One
I was ringing the doorbell of a house with a Hillary sign in the front yard. (It's proven to be worthwhile to hit these houses. Sometimes the sign only reflects one spouse or there is some other chink in the armor.) A bulldog and pug were staring at me through the glass door barking their heads off. They kept looking over their shoulders expecting their human owner to come to the door, but no one seemed to be coming. I left my lit and started back down the steps to the minivan. As I was starting the car, I looked up to see a woman standing outside the front door, waving at me.
"Wont you people just stop. You call and interrupt people without caring a bit what they might be doing!"
"I apologize, 'Mam, but we just think this election is so important, we can't make a mistake. I'm just a volunteer."
"I just don't know what to think anymore!" she said with angry frustration.
"Well, it looks like you have a Clinton sign. Are you concerned at all about her in the general election?"
We spoke for a minute or so. She was confused. She clearly had gone back and forth like so many of us, trying to make this momentous decision. Finally having made that decision, she resented the continued attention, but clearly she wasn't as sure of herself as she'd like to be.
I made my electability pitch, saying as much as I might admire Hillary, I just think about 50% of America has decided she's no good and we're not going to change their minds. It was weird. She didn't dispute my points but was in her stocking feet. It was 8 or 9 degrees. Her body language told me it was time to go, so I excused myself.
I started the car and backed out of the driveway. As I started up the hill of her street, I looked over to see her again outside, waving a newspaper at me. I rolled down the window.
"Don't just tell me why NOT to vote for someone! Tell me why I should support your guy!"
"Well, sure--"
"See! See this! Do you know the Press-Citizen?" (The Iowa City paper.)
"Sure."
She had it on a page that was clearly a chart comparing all the candidates positions on dozens of issues.
She started, "On immigration, Edwards says, 'We must secure our borders (something...something, I don't exactly remember) but maintain our country's heritage of immigrant contribution.' What does that mean?? It doesn't mean anything!"
"Well, I'm not sure exactly what you're reading there, but--"
"None of them say anything specific! None of them have a plan for anything!"
"Well, that's just not true, 'Mam." At this point, I had gotten out of my car and gotten about halfway to the door. "John Edwards has more detailed plans about more things than anybody. I've got a book in my car."
She was not pleased, but I went to my car and got the little handbook out entitled "Plan for One America." She had retreated back inside, but opened the door so I could give it to her. I told her it was VERY specific. I wished her a happy new year and thanked her for caucusing. And finally left.
Phew...bizarre....
It was my first time really seeing the confused emotion that must be boiling inside a number of people. I was bewildered. I felt I had done all right, but I was way out of my comfort zone.
Two
Perhaps the exact opposite. A few hours later I stopped by another house. Big, long driveway. I knocked on the door, and through the window I could see a study with shelves and shelves of vinyl records. A music buff. The guy opened the door. He had shoulder length hair, partly pulled back.
"Hi, I'm from the John Edwards campaign. You planning on caucusing tomorrow?"
"Nah, I got bowling," he said with a sideways smile.
"You can't take one week off?"
"Nah."
"Well, have a nice day."
That was that. Maybe I'll offend someone here, but I don't think that man deserves to live in America. I don't think he deserves to have the fire department come to save his home. I don't think he appreciates what an opportunity, what a blessing it is to live in a country of such opportunity. It's hard to offend me, but I was furious.
I really had to pee at this point, which is often the case while canvassing. I thought about doing so in the bushes by his driveway--as I said, it was long, remember. But I didn't. I held it for another hour until I was done.
I spent 5 and a half hours going door-to-door, mainly for people who didn't want me to be there. A week out of my life. Hundreds of dollars in gas and meals. In the FREEZING cold. Trying to educate people about a candidate who I think offers the greatest hope that this country can right it's rotten political system. He'd rather go bowling.
Two conversations stuck in my craw.
One
I was ringing the doorbell of a house with a Hillary sign in the front yard. (It's proven to be worthwhile to hit these houses. Sometimes the sign only reflects one spouse or there is some other chink in the armor.) A bulldog and pug were staring at me through the glass door barking their heads off. They kept looking over their shoulders expecting their human owner to come to the door, but no one seemed to be coming. I left my lit and started back down the steps to the minivan. As I was starting the car, I looked up to see a woman standing outside the front door, waving at me.
"Wont you people just stop. You call and interrupt people without caring a bit what they might be doing!"
"I apologize, 'Mam, but we just think this election is so important, we can't make a mistake. I'm just a volunteer."
"I just don't know what to think anymore!" she said with angry frustration.
"Well, it looks like you have a Clinton sign. Are you concerned at all about her in the general election?"
We spoke for a minute or so. She was confused. She clearly had gone back and forth like so many of us, trying to make this momentous decision. Finally having made that decision, she resented the continued attention, but clearly she wasn't as sure of herself as she'd like to be.
I made my electability pitch, saying as much as I might admire Hillary, I just think about 50% of America has decided she's no good and we're not going to change their minds. It was weird. She didn't dispute my points but was in her stocking feet. It was 8 or 9 degrees. Her body language told me it was time to go, so I excused myself.
I started the car and backed out of the driveway. As I started up the hill of her street, I looked over to see her again outside, waving a newspaper at me. I rolled down the window.
"Don't just tell me why NOT to vote for someone! Tell me why I should support your guy!"
"Well, sure--"
"See! See this! Do you know the Press-Citizen?" (The Iowa City paper.)
"Sure."
She had it on a page that was clearly a chart comparing all the candidates positions on dozens of issues.
She started, "On immigration, Edwards says, 'We must secure our borders (something...something, I don't exactly remember) but maintain our country's heritage of immigrant contribution.' What does that mean?? It doesn't mean anything!"
"Well, I'm not sure exactly what you're reading there, but--"
"None of them say anything specific! None of them have a plan for anything!"
"Well, that's just not true, 'Mam." At this point, I had gotten out of my car and gotten about halfway to the door. "John Edwards has more detailed plans about more things than anybody. I've got a book in my car."
She was not pleased, but I went to my car and got the little handbook out entitled "Plan for One America." She had retreated back inside, but opened the door so I could give it to her. I told her it was VERY specific. I wished her a happy new year and thanked her for caucusing. And finally left.
Phew...bizarre....
It was my first time really seeing the confused emotion that must be boiling inside a number of people. I was bewildered. I felt I had done all right, but I was way out of my comfort zone.
Two
Perhaps the exact opposite. A few hours later I stopped by another house. Big, long driveway. I knocked on the door, and through the window I could see a study with shelves and shelves of vinyl records. A music buff. The guy opened the door. He had shoulder length hair, partly pulled back.
"Hi, I'm from the John Edwards campaign. You planning on caucusing tomorrow?"
"Nah, I got bowling," he said with a sideways smile.
"You can't take one week off?"
"Nah."
"Well, have a nice day."
That was that. Maybe I'll offend someone here, but I don't think that man deserves to live in America. I don't think he deserves to have the fire department come to save his home. I don't think he appreciates what an opportunity, what a blessing it is to live in a country of such opportunity. It's hard to offend me, but I was furious.
I really had to pee at this point, which is often the case while canvassing. I thought about doing so in the bushes by his driveway--as I said, it was long, remember. But I didn't. I held it for another hour until I was done.
I spent 5 and a half hours going door-to-door, mainly for people who didn't want me to be there. A week out of my life. Hundreds of dollars in gas and meals. In the FREEZING cold. Trying to educate people about a candidate who I think offers the greatest hope that this country can right it's rotten political system. He'd rather go bowling.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Long Conversations Inside the Front Door
The last two days I have been invited in quite a bit by my canvassing friends. (And no, it's not by hot, young U of I co-eds; they all seem to still be on winter break. Take that Obama!)
More and more, I'm invited in because these people have not made up their minds, and they want to talk. I mean with a capital "T". I spent 20-30 minutes helping a young mother see why Obama talks a nice talk but is naive/mis-informed about how to get things done (See Paul Krugman article linked below: "Big Table Myth") and how Hillary is a corporate shill and dangerously unelectable, while her toddler looked on and her Siamese cat climbed my leg. Seriously, despite the fact that campaigns have been hassling these people for a YEAR, they haven't decided. I suppose it's a sign of the quality of the candidate pool.
I am never dogmatic, but I let them know why I'm supporting Edwards. There is no spin from me. I lead them through my thought process from the root of our governments problems (un-mediated greed from business combined with politicians who need more and more money to compete with 30 second TV ads) to the progressive/populist solutions (advocated by Obama and Edwards) to the one candidate who wants to play hardball (Edwards) rather than sing sweetly a siren's song of bi-partisanship (Obama). To drive the nail in, I mention electability.
For more on the False God of Bi-partisanship, read my post below.
Anyhow, I've been having long conversations with people willing to listen, and it's awesome. I can't caucus and try to convince my neighbors on election night, so this is the next best thing.
The more homes I visit, the more I think this will indeed be decided on caucus night. The big three are close in just about every poll. It will all come down to how well those individual precinct captains fight over the delegates for the non-viable candidates. (A candidate has to have at least 15% of the vote in each precinct to be viable, so most people supporting Dodd, Biden, and Richardson will have to go for someone else.) I think the Edwards argument is clear and sensible. I think it will win the day.
More and more, I'm invited in because these people have not made up their minds, and they want to talk. I mean with a capital "T". I spent 20-30 minutes helping a young mother see why Obama talks a nice talk but is naive/mis-informed about how to get things done (See Paul Krugman article linked below: "Big Table Myth") and how Hillary is a corporate shill and dangerously unelectable, while her toddler looked on and her Siamese cat climbed my leg. Seriously, despite the fact that campaigns have been hassling these people for a YEAR, they haven't decided. I suppose it's a sign of the quality of the candidate pool.
I am never dogmatic, but I let them know why I'm supporting Edwards. There is no spin from me. I lead them through my thought process from the root of our governments problems (un-mediated greed from business combined with politicians who need more and more money to compete with 30 second TV ads) to the progressive/populist solutions (advocated by Obama and Edwards) to the one candidate who wants to play hardball (Edwards) rather than sing sweetly a siren's song of bi-partisanship (Obama). To drive the nail in, I mention electability.
For more on the False God of Bi-partisanship, read my post below.
Anyhow, I've been having long conversations with people willing to listen, and it's awesome. I can't caucus and try to convince my neighbors on election night, so this is the next best thing.
The more homes I visit, the more I think this will indeed be decided on caucus night. The big three are close in just about every poll. It will all come down to how well those individual precinct captains fight over the delegates for the non-viable candidates. (A candidate has to have at least 15% of the vote in each precinct to be viable, so most people supporting Dodd, Biden, and Richardson will have to go for someone else.) I think the Edwards argument is clear and sensible. I think it will win the day.
Iowa is Really Cold in Winter
Aunt Paula's corner
My chariot.It is damn cold in Iowa. Today, January 1, 2008, it was generally between 6-9 degrees and WINDY while I was walking precincts. (Thank god, "walking" precincts in the upper-middle class neighborhoods I was in meant walking from the car to the front door and back.) I also forgot the long-johns dad so earnestly reminded me to bring. My solution? I wore my KC Chiefs pajama pants under my jeans all day. Not bad.
Also, thank god for mom and dad's GPS thingy. It's kind of like playing a video game as you ride around. Paula tells me it was dubbed "Penelope" during her trip with mom to Arkansas last summer. Penelope is my new love--sorry, Cass. I do a LOT of driving, and she has unfailingly told me where to go--except once on the way to Dubuque where she told me I was driving through a lake rather than on Route 151. Rest assured, my minivan-chariot is not amphibious.
The False God of Bi-Partisanship
If you, like my father, wax on about how the pendulum swings from conservative to liberal and back again in this country. (And ignore the fact that the country has marched steadily to the right for almost 30 years...don't even bring up Clinton, the dude passed NAFTA and "reformed" welfare. He was a moderate conservative. Why the right demonizes him genuinely mystifies me.)
Anyhow, if you buy the pendulum thing and yearn for bi-partisanship (I'm not sure if my dad does the second part, he just seems to adopt a bi-disgustedship.) I submit to you this: a really smart look at what bi-partisanship has done for us lately, namely give cover for vastly unpopular policies by creating consensus around them, even though the public doesn't agree. Check it out.
Anyhow, if you buy the pendulum thing and yearn for bi-partisanship (I'm not sure if my dad does the second part, he just seems to adopt a bi-disgustedship.) I submit to you this: a really smart look at what bi-partisanship has done for us lately, namely give cover for vastly unpopular policies by creating consensus around them, even though the public doesn't agree. Check it out.
On Drinking Kool-Aid
There is a good deal of animus towards the Obama campaign at Edwards HQ, as is to be expected. Rob, a staff member, 27, who graduated from law school about a year and a half ago was ripping Obama as a fake. I said to him, "Oh sure, Rob, but if he wins the primary you'll be voting for him in November." "I'm not so sure of that," he responded.
Now, this is probably just aggressive campaign talk. In one way, how can you blame these poor sacks? They've been working 50-60 hours a week for Edwards since the summer or even spring. That energy is often directed right at the opposing candidates. (Another staff member, Sara, told me of being dropped off on a corner, 3 miles from the Tom Harkin Steak Fry this September in 100 degree heat and humidity. They were told to "Do Visibility!" So they walked 3 miles, shouting at the top of their lungs for Edwards and waving signs. My favorite chant was one directed at Hillary before she'd released a healthcare plan: "We've got healthcare, yes we do. We've got healthcare, how 'bout you? " and then pointing at a group of Hillary supporters.)
But back to the fierce campaign partisanship. Every one of the Edwards staffers believe Obama is a fraud. In the office, if a voter is mentioned as supporting Obama over Edwards, almost the entire room responds, "Look at the policy!" It is a fact that Edwards has the most detailed plans about the widest variety of issues. Ever other campaigns would admit--off the record--that this is true. Now, would Obama be a more effective advocate for the much discussed "change"? He'd sure like you to think so.
I've grown more and more anti-Obama, primarily as a result of Paul Krugman. Progressives have very, very few mainstream media voices, but Krugman, an economist who writes Op-Eds for the NYTimes, is one of them. Here is an absolute must-read piece comparing the approaches of Edwards and Obama: READ ME, PLEASE!
Here's another piece by Krugman, published on Slate.com, that articulates what is possible for the progressive movement in this election, but only if we seize the moment.
Now, this is probably just aggressive campaign talk. In one way, how can you blame these poor sacks? They've been working 50-60 hours a week for Edwards since the summer or even spring. That energy is often directed right at the opposing candidates. (Another staff member, Sara, told me of being dropped off on a corner, 3 miles from the Tom Harkin Steak Fry this September in 100 degree heat and humidity. They were told to "Do Visibility!" So they walked 3 miles, shouting at the top of their lungs for Edwards and waving signs. My favorite chant was one directed at Hillary before she'd released a healthcare plan: "We've got healthcare, yes we do. We've got healthcare, how 'bout you? " and then pointing at a group of Hillary supporters.)
But back to the fierce campaign partisanship. Every one of the Edwards staffers believe Obama is a fraud. In the office, if a voter is mentioned as supporting Obama over Edwards, almost the entire room responds, "Look at the policy!" It is a fact that Edwards has the most detailed plans about the widest variety of issues. Ever other campaigns would admit--off the record--that this is true. Now, would Obama be a more effective advocate for the much discussed "change"? He'd sure like you to think so.
I've grown more and more anti-Obama, primarily as a result of Paul Krugman. Progressives have very, very few mainstream media voices, but Krugman, an economist who writes Op-Eds for the NYTimes, is one of them. Here is an absolute must-read piece comparing the approaches of Edwards and Obama: READ ME, PLEASE!
Here's another piece by Krugman, published on Slate.com, that articulates what is possible for the progressive movement in this election, but only if we seize the moment.
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